BALANCE BEAM:
This is where things get really unpredictable. The best gymnasts Russia has on balance beam are currently nowhere near actually making the team, so the lineup is not going to be ideal, no matter how things work out. But when you can only take 5 gymnasts, you can't have the best everywhere. Not to mention that if things go wrong on balance beam, they go really wrong, even if they can put the best gymnasts up.I really don't think Russia should have any problems putting up a good beam rotation. But they shouldn't have had problems in Glasgow either but somehow managed to screw it up. So we won't know until it's over.
I was really struggling with the difficulty values for this and how to count them, since for the most gymnasts, they change a lot, even with the same exact routine. It all depends on the judges and how strict they are with those connections and downgrading dance elements. I tried to go with the highest possible value (every attempted connection counted), but it caused some issues because some of the gymnasts get their attempted difficulty often and some of them never (some of them often end up even half a point lower). I also tried to be realistic about the actual value of the routine while estimating the scores they could get with a hit routine. If a gymnast hasn't showed a full routine this year, I went with their last competition ready routine.
DV: 6.5+
- Seda Tutkhalyan: Difficulty of 6.7 with good execution and mostly hit connections, but some questionable leaps amounting to a tenth or two loss in difficulty. I probably don't even have to say that my girl is famously inconsistent. Last year was mostly disastrous and everything was going good this year until nationals event finals. But when she hits there's not even one balance check. For a hit routine she scores in high 14s (for a bit easier routine) or low 15s.
- Ekaterina Sokova: Difficulty of 6.6 with good execution and a few questionable connections. She's a bit inconsistent and even her hit routines have a wide range from low 14s to high 14s. She's also been out for a year with injuries, so it's unlikely that she'll make Rio.
- Evgenia Shelgunova: Difficulty of 6.6 with questionable execution and connections. Shelgie is a mystery really. She has a huge routine here and when she's on, it's fabulous to watch. She's steady and aggressive with her connections and it kind of reminds me of the Americans. But the other side of Shelgie is a mess. She has her form issues even at her best and she's rarely at her best. At her best she can score in the high 14s, but she usually stays in the high 13s to low 14 range even when she hits. It's very unlikely that she'll make it to Rio.
- Maria Kharenkova: Difficulty of 6.5 with good execution and mostly hit connections. She's usually very steady and consistent, but her consistency suffered a lot last year with her back problems. This year so far it looks like she's back to her usual self hitting her routines extremely well. She consistently scores in the low 15s internationally. She fights pretty much for the same spot with Seda, but neither are currently in the team unless the London crew finally succumbs to their many injuries.
DV: 6.0-6.4
- Angelina Melnikova: Difficulty of 6.4 with okay execution and a few possibly questionable connections. She's usually pretty calm and capable of staying on the beam, but has many small errors lowering her execution score and interfering with connections. However, at the Russian Championships this year she delivered 3 pretty much perfect routines and if she keeps it up at international competitions too, she's Russia's best beam worker. At the Russian nats she scored low 15s, which to me sounds very realistic even internationally with the same routines. Usually she has scored mid 14s for a hit routine though. It really depends on whether she can keep delivering the routines like she did at nationals.
- Natalia Kapitonova: Difficulty of 6.4, with questionable execution. She presented a routine with several upgrades at nationals, but had many struggles. She tends to be a bit hesitant and has plenty of balance checks. She can get above 14 for a good routine, but usually scores low to mid 13s.
- Daria Skrypnik: Difficulty of 6.4 (at Russian Nationals) with questionable execution and usually multiple missed connections resulting in much lower actual difficulty. She's inconsistent and scores low 14s for a hit routine.
- Anastasia Dmitrieva: Difficulty of 6.2 with okay execution. She too showed upgrades at Russian nationals. She's inconsistent and usually scores in the 13 (with a fall). When she actually stays up (once a year), she can get mid to high 14s. Not in contention for Rio, I don't know why I put her here...
- Aliya Mustafina: Something above 6. That's all I can say. She has been as high as 6.7, but her routines depend on connections and she switches them up several times per year sometimes. Even several times per meet is not out of the ordinary. Her execution on beam is beautiful and there's not much that can be deducted there, but she has plenty of balance checks and missed or nearly-missed connections to make up for it. Small errors aside, she hits her routines consistently and usually scores in the high 14s.
- Viktoria Komova: Difficulty of 6.1 with beautiful execution and a few questionable connections amounting to few tenths lost in difficulty. After her comeback balance beam has been a huge struggle for her, she's inconsistent and very hesitant with plenty of balance checks and missed connections, even when she hits. Like with Aliya, her execution is otherwise beautiful though. She gets mid 14s for a hit routine (up to 15s domestically for near perfect routines), but usually scores low in the 13s.
- Daria Spiridonova: Difficulty of 6.0 with a few execution and connection issues. She beautiful when she hits (terrible split ring aside), but she's very inconsistent. She scores low 14s for a hit routine.
DV: 5.9-
- Ksenia Afanasyeva: Difficulty of 5.6 last year with good execution. She's pretty steady and consistent when she competes, but hasn't regularly competed balance beam in years. If her health allows, she can probably get a routine ready for team finals if needed. With the routine from last year, scoring 14s would be realistic, but if she's going up on beam in team finals, she's probably going to upgrade.
I'm not going to guess any possible upgrades, it's so easy to revamp balance beam routines and they are constantly changing. Maybe some standing arabians and new connections? Most of these gymnasts already have E dismounts so I'm not expecting many upgrades there. Hopefully everyone will just clean up and stay consistent.
Highest scoring TF lineup without any upgrades: Tutkhalyan, Melnikova, Kharenkova
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