Russian team for European Championships is not surprising, but HAPPY MAY DAY anyway

The Russian team for European Championships was announced and there were no changes from earlier, except for Vika, who is still suffering from back pain (more about it later).

It's going to be:

• Aliya Mustafina
• Angelina Melnikova
• Ksenia Afanasyeva
• Maria Paseka
• Daria Spiridonova
• Seda Tutkhalyan (reserve(ish))

The first two have clearly earned their spot. Aliya for just being Aliya, and Melka for having performance of a lifetime at nationals. If I have to actually come up with an actual reason for Aliya having earned her spot, it's her persona. She's the team leader, the girls respect her, love her, listen to her and she can hopefully keep everybody calm with her own calm no bullshit presence. Clearly Afan wasn't up for that role last year. Aliya can also medal on bars, stay on the damn beam (albeit shakily) and most likely come up with a good double twisting yurchenko. As far as I know, she's been training with full loads since nationals, so I trust her to be ready.

Melka is a no-brainer. She can do all around at team finals: passable DTY, good bars, good beam, decent floor. She should also be able to contend for individual medals on beam and bars. Maybe even floor if she gets her connections and the competition has some mistakes.

So those two I'm fine with, but as for the rest...no.


Afan has her major health issues, but if needed, she'll give a good performance on floor, all the way to finals and a medal. She can also turn up with decent vault, DTY, but somehow I wouldn't be surprised if she showed up with an amanar just for the hell of it :D Full body cast and an amanar. Why not. She was not ready at nationals, but I trust her. If she decided to compete, she's ready. But I'm unsure about whether or not this will happen.

Beefarm, Beefarm, Beefarm... What can I say? Nationals was a disaster and I probably wouldn't have put her on the team. I'm not sure if she can stay in one piece until Rio if she has to peak twice this year. And actually, she isn't in one piece, she's at the hospital for back pain like Vika. So I'm even less optimistic about her going to Switzerland than Afan. Then again, if she does go, she's good. She competes extremely well, I don't remember her ever having a huge mistake in an important competition (Euros, Worlds, Olympics). She would definitely fight for vault gold with Giulia Steingruber. But I don't think she'll show up. And Giulia has the home advantage anyway...

Dasha will get the UB gold unless there's some kind of a disaster. And disasters aren't very common in Switzerland. An avalanche or two in the alps won't reach Bern. It's a landlocked country so there are no Tsunamis. No tectonic plates causing earthquakes, nothing. And I think the aliens would rather save their manpower for a strike to Rio. So yeah, Dasha will get the gold and score close to mid 15s during the team final, but ARE WE REALLY PUTTING HER UP ON BEAM??? Apparently with this team.

And my girl Seda. She's the reserve, but let's face it, it would be really unlikely that Aliya, Afan and Beefarm all manage to stay alive for the coming month. Beefarm is already falling apart. So there's a huge chance that Seda will get to compete and that means that we don't have to put Dasha up on beam, yay! It will also mean that this is Seda's last chance, if she falls, there's little chance for Rio. So GymGods save us. She could also help with floor, since Aliya probably won't have her set together and contend for a vault medal.

So to put it all together, this team will have a huge score on bars. Dasha and Aliya would most likely score close to mid 15s and Melka somewhere around 15. Seda and Beefarm are above mid 14s. Vault is also good, they can also easily put up 3 DTYs, even with injuries or changes. If Aliya has hers back, it's 15 or a bit more. Melka's and Seda's are questionable, but unless they fall, 14.7s would be my guess. Afan would be a somewhere in between those and Beefarm leading the pack with her amanar.

BUT if the team they selected all make it (unlikely), beam and floor will be weak. Melka will definitely be up on beam and she can even get above 15, but I wouldn't count on it. I have no idea what Aliya can do (nationals was shaky, but she can still get it together), but she's going to have to go up at team finals whether she's ready or not. Afan hasn't done beam in awhile, but you never know... Beefarm is a definite no-no. So that leaves us with Dasha. She barely gets above 14 for a hit routine and I'd give her about 50/50 chance of hitting if I'm being generous. And floor isn't any better. Aliya isn't ready, and Dasha is a disaster, so we can count them out. Afan is good, Melka is okay, and Beefarm is ...passable. This is definitely not a good floor rotation for Olympic year Euros.

If we put in Seda, she's good on beam and okay on floor. I would definitely trust her on floor and put her on beam before Dasha. 80% of her beam routines have been good this year so let's be optimistic. Another one that could help this team is Masha K. She's excellent on beam, passable on floor and decent on bars. So if we have both Afan and Beefarm pull out, she would be an excellent choice.
 
And these were my initial thoughts on this matter. In conclusion: This team is certainly not surprising, but still a bit disappointing. I'm losing more hope every day that we can keep the older girls healthy enough for Rio and it's breaking my heart. I want to see them there, but I also want the younger ones there. They are healthy and capable and at the moment more deserving of the spots and the veterans. Ugh..

Should I go watch the Euros? I'm trying to decide on whether or not to splurge on it. Switzerland is expensive.
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This Sunday is May Day, which is probably the most important holiday-weekend of the spring here and things are about to get wild. The celebrations officially start tomorrow (May Day Eve), but when I came home from school, the city was filled with kids with balloons and people drinking outside and it definitely seems like my neighbors are having a party at the moment. Since it's Friday, I guess people are starting a day early :D

Why do I always forget every holiday and it just takes me by surprise? Probably because I'm such a hermit. But HAPPY MAY DAY!!! And if you don't celebrate it where you're from, just have a good weekend!