However, after trying to imagine a legitimate floor routine that would both score well and not kill her, I got tired and sidetracked (as usual) and started to upgrade her other routines as well. It's really close to the Olympics and Russia has been really conservative this quad, so I doubt that she's going to have any new upgrades at this point, but let me dream. And she is Aliya, so she might surprise.
VAULT:
Current routine: DTY
Possible upgrades: No. Just no.
UNEVEN BARS:
Current routine: 6.5
inbar 1/1+maloney+pak+van leeuwen, inbar 1/2+jaeger, toe-on 1/1+full out
Possible upgraded routine: 6.6
inbar 1/1+maloney+pak+van leeuwen, inbar 1/2+jaeger, toe-on 1/1+mustafina
Possible upgraded routine: 6.7
inbar 1/1+komova II+pak+van leeuwen, inbar 1/2+jaeger, toe-on 1/1+full out
Possible upgraded routine: 6.8
inbar 1/1+komova II+pak+van leeuwen, inbar 1/2+jaeger, toe-on 1/1+mustafina
Notes: I hate to say this and crush everyone's hope for a second UB gold, but I don't think she's going to upgrade. They have been very conservative with her bars this quad and her back, shoulder and wrist problems aren't helping.
That said, her most likely upgrades would be a komova II and mustafina-dismount. She has never shown a komova II, but since she's excellent at both inbar work and various shap transitions, I wouldn't see it as a too big of a stretch. The biggest problem in this scenario is her back. Can it take more inbars?
And I love the mustafina, but right now I don't think it's likely, or even worth it. She hasn't done it in ages and her full out is beautiful and she sticks it every single time, so adding a mustafina would be very risky for just a tenth. Bringing it back could have some novelty value though.
BALANCE BEAM:
Current routine: 6.4
double turn, split jump+sissone+side somi, switch 1/2+onodi+aerial cartwheel, front aerial+front aerial+BHS, switch ring, double tuck
Possible upgraded routine: 6.6
double turn, standing arabian+wolf jump+split jump, switch 1/2+onodi+aerial cartwheel, front aerial+front aerial+BHS, switch ring, double tuck
Notes: Aliya often pulls out new balance beam routines out of nowhere, so who knows what's going to happen here. I picked the standing arabian as a possible upgrade, because she has had it in her routine so many times before. But I like the split jump+sissone+side somi combo, and it seems to work very well for her. I also think that the routine has better flow with it, the standing arabian would break the nice rhythm she's got going. And it's easy to miss the jumps after it, so in the end, it could be only a tenth more. But the field on balance beam is really deep right now, so possible two tenths extra could mean a lot.
FLOOR EXERCISE:
Current routine: 5.8
double L, full-in, mustafina+double turn, semenova, 3/2+1/1, triple turn, double tuck
Possible upgraded routine: 6.0
double L, full-in, mustafina+double turn, semenova, 5/2+1/1, triple turn, double tuck
Possible upgraded routine: 6.1
double L, DLO, mustafina+double turn, semenova, 5/2+1/1, triple turn, double tuck
Possible upgraded routine: 6.2
double L, full-in, mustafina+double turn, semenova, 5/2+1/1, gomez, double tuck
Possible upgraded routine: 6.3
double L, DLO, mustafina+double turn, semenova, 5/2+1/1, gomez, double tuck
Possible upgraded routine: 6.2
double L, whip+whip+full-in, mustafina+double turn, semenova, 5/2+1/1, triple turn, double tuck
Possible upgraded routine: 6.5
double L, whip+whip+full-in, mustafina+double turn, semenova, 5/2+1/1, gomez, double tuck
Dream upgraded routine (because why not): 6.9
double L+L, DLO, mustafina+double turn, semenova+Y, whip+whip+full-in+stag, gomez, 5/2+1/1
Notes: As I said in the beginning, she still hasn't shown a "full" floor routine this year (at least I hope the routines from Euros and Russian Cup weren't final), so we don't know how floor is going to play out.
But my most likely upgrade is 5/2+1/1 , simply because she's had it in her routine since forever, and this year she has been doing 5/2 alone and 3/2+1/1 in connection, which I think is preparation. So she should at least have a floor routine with 6.0 start value.
The next likely upgrade is probably a gomez. It has been inconsistent for her (well, it's inconsistent for pretty much everybody), but she often tries to throw it anyway. A hit gomez with just one tumbling upgrade would give her a good floor start value for the AA.
The full-in was such a surprise at the Russian Cup that I really don't know what she'll do with it. Is it going to stay as it is, is it going to be replaced by the double layout, is she going to add whips like she did with her double arabian? I don't know. As you can see, the best option would be to add whips. Or better yet, whips to a stag (I didn't put this as an option, but why not). With whips and a full-in to a stag, and a successful gomez, her difficulty would be 6.6. I like it. I like it a lot.
She can also play with the turns as usual and connect some of them to easier ones and get extra tenths that way. Double L+L, semenova+Y and so on. I'm fine with it as long as she's not stumbling out of everything gathering a bunch of unnecessary deductions.
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Any thoughts? Did I jump the shark, or am I too pessimistic as usual?
I'll play! Pessimism is always good with Russia because they tend to crush your optimism. Remember how excited everyone was after nationals this year? lol. I am not expecting Aliya to upgrade UB at all, reading in between the lines I think they have tried and it comes down to health issues. The Komova II route doesn't seem like it'd be fun for someone with chronic back problems, and the Seitz is too undervalued to be worth the deductions. It's a shame all the skills she really excels at compared to the rest of the world are capped. She could totally do an inbar 1.5, and I believe she's actually submitted that skill before, but there's no point when it's worth the same as the inbar full and the deductions for late pirouettes are sooo high.
ReplyDeleteFor beam - the upside to having the arabian is that currently when she does her routine well it's a little on the short side. I know she's kind of cautious on beam by nature but IMO it's a bit obvious she's waiting around killing time near the end so she doesn't get penalized for dismounting too early - kind of like Afan's routine in 2012. I wish they'd give her something more to do choreo wise at least if she needs to kill time. Anyway I don't see the arabian coming back unfortunately, or I think she'd have tried to do it in Russian Cup, which is what she did when she suddenly brought it back in 2014. One never knows with her though. I never ever thought it would come back when she took it out in 2013 and yet it did. My other dream upgrade for her would have been the okino because her double turn is so nice, but that's such a risky skill :) And of course dreaming that she'll at least throw a BHS-back tuck like in 2012 if she screws up every other series.
Floor is where I think (hope!) she has more coming. The 2.5+1/1 she did during Euros PT and downgraded because of energy I think, but it should be back. I hate the double L but I can see why it needs to be there because odds are she's not going to make all her turns anyway. & if she's going to turn so much I'm glad she's at least doing 4 different ones and not still doing the memmel AND mustafina. I think she'll try to add the whips too, it's clearly a combo the Russians know how to teach, but I feel like it'd be hard for her to add a stag to a full-in. The ideal routine would probably be DLO or ADF + stag, whip+whip+full-in, and 2.5-1/1, but I expect it'll be the double tuck in place of the first one. I think it's very hard for her to keep the two whips + ADF from going OOB, so that's my theory for the moment on why she's randomly learned a full-in. I would love to see what she could do on floor if she were ever fully healthy - she's always had powerful high tumbling (it's especially noticeable compared to her teammates) and I think she'd actually be capable of the double-double IF she was in better shape.
That was fun! One never knows what to expect with her or Russia in general, but I've lost hope that she's going to upgrade bars at least. Do you have thoughts about Melka or Seda? Spiri & Beefarm aren't going to upgrade, let's be real, so random last-minute Russian upgrades are limited to these three. Or in Seda's case, she's shown lots of potential upgrades this year already, so which ones do you think she'll keep for the Olympics?
I so happy they learned from 2014 and have her now doing completely different turns. The double L is new to her (well, she had it in 2009 last and it was bad back then too), so I hope she'll nail it when the time comes. I have a love/hate relationship with her double turn on beam, so I'm not sure if I'd welcome the okino. It's just that she has these long periods of time when she never gets the double right, and then she suddenly nails it again. I think it might be one of her most inconsistent skills on beam. This year the double turn has been good to her though, at least so far.
DeleteI feel like nearly every Russian gymnast had good tumbling during the last quad and now everybody's stuck on double tucks. At least Zelikson has half the team doing DLOs now, but the rest of their tumbling is still weak.
Seda has always had really unpredictable upgrades, so it's hard to predict. Who thought that she's be doing a bhardwaj last year, and now a church... And that piked full in on balance beam out of nowhere. There really isn't anything I can predict :D But I hope she brings back the piked full in on floor, it was really nice. And I think that her UB routine with it's upgrades is set, it's not going to be used in TF anyway so she can take the risk. On beam she's probably going to stick with the double pike during TF (if she hits her routine before the dismount) and bring out the full-in if she makes finals.
Since Melka is a Russian bar worker, I expected her to have a pak+shap combo at the Russian Cup like Kapi did, but she didn't, so I don't think she going to have it in Rio. She could go with the full-in on beam à la Seda, but I don't actually think she's going to have any new upgrades because there was no hint of anything at the Russian Cup. Maybe they want to surprise everyone with some unexpected upgrades and keep her as their "secret weapon", but Melka kind of gives me that Kyla Ross -vibe of she has to be 100% comfortable with everything before introducing it to her competition routines.